Global stock markets have captured an even more volatile environment in terms of short-term trading and long-term investing in recent years, as China’s economic situation has dramatically worsened over the last couple of decades. However, even with a volatile global outlook, there is still one thing that has managed to stand steady amid this turmoil: the FX markets. The fact that these markets are able to remain afloat despite the volatile global market environment is a testament to the strong fundamentals of foreign exchange markets.
Global FX indexes have been caught up in a very volatile market environment over the last few years, with the spotlight largely on the US-China trade dispute over the last year, as well as the trade war between the US and China last year. But while the ink is still barely dry on the first phase of the “phased” trade agreement between these two countries, the global financial system changed drastically once again with the news that the US Federal Reserve started tightening monetary policies. When the news was released by the Federal Reserve, the market immediately began to take on a new sense of volatility.
Global stock indexes fell significantly and the FX market also took a hit as these news reports led to a renewed push towards safe-haven investing, specifically in stocks. This time, safe-haven investment strategies were not limited to the US but spread across the globe, particularly in Japan, Europe and Canada, where the stock market is still relatively stable.
The first indication of the impact of the US Federal Reserve on foreign economies came in August when two major stock indexes, the Nikkei index and the Dow Jones industrial average, fell significantly, a trend that continues through September, especially on the heels of the US Federal Reserve announcement. Even though the markets in Japan and Canada are considered to be slightly less volatile than those of the US, investors still appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as the markets continue to adjust to the changes in the international system.
Although some experts are predicting that the global economic fallout from the Fed tightening the monetary policy will lead to a significant drop in global stocks over the next few months, it is not clear how the global FX markets will respond to this announcement. Although the Federal Reserve’s move may push up the currency values of several countries, the exact effects of this move are still unclear, although it is possible that the US dollar will start to rise against other leading currencies and global economies may suffer as a result.
Global stock indexes may suffer slightly in the short term as a result of the announcement, but experts agree that the long term effect on global FX indexes may be minimal. This is because many experts believe that the strength of the American economy and its ability to keep the global economy in check will ultimately offset any negative effects caused by this event. However, one of the most important things to consider about this news is that the US is already benefiting from the tightening in currency values on its own, as the economy has seen a large bounce back following the announcement.
The most important thing to remember about the announcement is that the impact it may have on stock indexes may not be as substantial as some analysts have predicted. Some believe that the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policies may only be temporary and may not actually cause significant damage to global economies as many critics claim. It is possible that the US may eventually find itself in a stronger position, especially if the Chinese economy continues to grow and sustain the growth that it has been experiencing lately.
Many analysts believe that the initial drop in global stock indexes may not have a direct impact on global currency rates and that the real value of stocks may only change slightly, if at all. It is possible that, in order to prevent any drastic changes in the value of global currency, many experts are suggesting that investors simply wait to see what happens in the next few months prior to making any investments. In the meantime, investors should continue to make their financial planning and use their common sense when it comes to selecting stocks, which is what really matters in the end.